General Motors (GM) is set to release its first-quarter earnings results before the opening bell on Tuesday, but Wall Street’s attention is expected to shift beyond the automaker’s quarterly performance and toward its full-year 2025 guidance, particularly in the wake of newly imposed auto tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration.
The White House’s 25% tariff on imported vehicles, which came into effect earlier this month, has introduced a wave of uncertainty across the auto sector, prompting several analysts to downgrade GM and other automotive stocks. Despite these headwinds, analysts expect General Motors to post better-than-expected Q1 results, driven in part by a pre-tariff consumer rush to purchase vehicles.
Street Forecasts Marginal Gains for Q1
According to consensus estimates compiled by LSEG, GM is projected to report:
- Earnings per share (EPS): $2.74 (adjusted)
- Revenue: $43.05 billion
If realized, the results would reflect a modest 0.1% increase in revenue from the $43.01 billion reported in Q1 2024, alongside a 4.6% rise in adjusted EPS. Last year, General Motors posted net income attributable to stockholders of $2.98 billion and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $3.87 billion for the first quarter.
While the financial figures will draw initial headlines, analysts suggest that GM’s future outlook will carry more weight with investors, particularly in light of the tariff-related cost pressures and manufacturing complexities the company now faces.
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Tariffs Cast Shadow Over Industry
The 25% tariff, which now applies to vehicle imports from Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and other nations, has upended long-standing supply chain and pricing models within the U.S. auto industry. GM has not announced any sweeping changes to its manufacturing plans, but it has been making incremental adjustments to its North American production strategy.
CEO Mary Barra had previously stated in February that the automaker was confident it could offset up to 50% of potential tariff impacts from Canada and Mexico. However, since the implementation of the sector-wide tariffs on April 3, the company has not issued further guidance on its mitigation efforts.
These uncertainties have weighed heavily on GM’s stock. Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays, and Bernstein have all downgraded GM shares in the weeks following the tariff announcement. Nonetheless, the stock remains rated “overweight” by analysts, with an average price target of $53.91, according to FactSet.
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All Eyes on 2025 Guidance
GM’s 2025 outlook, released earlier this year, may provide crucial clues for how the automaker plans to navigate the evolving trade environment. The company forecast:
- Net income attributable to stockholders: $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $11 to $12
- Adjusted EBIT: $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion
- Adjusted automotive free cash flow: $11 billion to $13 billion
Historically, General Motors has used its first-quarter earnings report as an opportunity to revise its annual guidance upward. However, with increased costs tied to tariffs, supply chain shifts, and potentially softening demand, it remains to be seen whether the automaker will stick to or revise these figures.
In The End
While General Motors is expected to post solid Q1 results, investor focus will likely center on how the company plans to absorb rising costs and adjust operations amid the volatile policy landscape. The earnings call and any updates to 2025 projections could provide critical insight into GM’s long-term resilience—and Wall Street will be listening closely.
Will General Motors maintain its momentum, or will trade tensions stall its progress? Investors are bracing for answers.
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